Pesquisa Paraná Pesquisas: Lula e Flávio Bolsonaro estão tecnicamente empatados em rejeição
Levantamento mostra índices altos de rejeição para os principais nomes na corrida presidencial de 2026 e destaca potencial eleitoral de governadores
Um novo levantamento do Instituto Paraná Pesquisas divulgado nesta sexta-feira aponta que o presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) e o senador Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) estão tecnicamente empatados nos níveis de rejeição, demonstrando um cenário polarizado às vésperas da disputa presidencial de 2026. A pesquisa foi realizada entre os dias 25 e 28 de janeiro, com 2.080 eleitores em 160 municípios de todo o país, e tem margem de erro de 2,2 pontos percentuais, com 95% de confiança.
Segundo os dados, 45,3% dos entrevistados afirmam que não votariam “de jeito nenhum” em Lula, enquanto 44,7% rejeitam completamente a possibilidade de votar em Flávio Bolsonaro — índices que mostram uma resistência semelhante de parte do eleitorado com os dois nomes mais conhecidos. Essa rejeição elevada ocorre em um momento de intensa mobilização política no país, com as eleições gerais marcadas para outubro de 2026.
Apesar desses altos percentuais de rejeição, a pesquisa também avaliou o potencial de voto dos principais pré-candidatos. Lula acumula 31,5% de votos certos e mais 22,3% de eleitores que poderiam votar nele, enquanto Flávio Bolsonaro tem 26,3% de votos certos e **28,1% que poderiam escolher o senador na urna — um indicativo de que parte do eleitorado ainda está aberta à definição.
Rejeição menor entre governadores
O levantamento revela ainda que nomes de governadores apresentam menores índices de rejeição quando comparados aos principais postulantes da chamada polarização nacional. O governador de São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), aparece com 36,1% de rejeição, e o governador do Paraná, Ratinho Junior (PSD), registra 33,8%, o menor índice entre os quatro líderes avaliados.
Além disso, ambos os governadores mostram potencial eleitoral considerável: 60% dos entrevistados afirmaram que poderiam votar em Ratinho Jr., e 48,1% poderiam votar em Tarcísio, números que destacam a possibilidade de crescimento dessas candidaturas em cenários mais amplos.
Reflexos no cenário eleitoral
Especialistas em pesquisas eleitorais destacam que altos níveis de rejeição para os principais nomes — especialmente Lula e Bolsonaro — podem influenciar a condução das estratégias de campanha nos próximos meses, levando candidaturas a buscar ampliar apoios com eleitores indecisos ou com menor resistência a outros nomes. A rejeição elevada costuma ser associada a maior volatilidade entre os votantes, e pode impactar diretamente os percentuais de intenção de voto em diferentes cenários de primeiro e segundo turno.
O levantamento está registrado no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) sob o número BR-08254/2026 e reforça a importância das avaliações de opinião pública à medida que a corrida presidencial se intensifica ao longo do ano.
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