A matemática da direita para conquistar maioria no Senado e tentar impeachment de Alexandre de Moraes
Grupos conservadores transformam eleição de 2026 em campo decisivo para alterar a correlação de forças no Congresso e pavimentar iniciativa contra ministros do STF.
A direita brasileira definiu as eleições gerais de 2026 como um momento estratégico para tentar formar uma maioria no Senado Federal capaz de enfrentar o Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) e viabilizar processos de impeachment de ministros, em especial de Alexandre de Moraes.
Atualmente, segundo levantamento de pedidos de afastamento disponíveis na presidência do Senado, há cerca de 70 pedidos de impeachment contra ministros da Corte, com Moraes sendo o principal alvo de 29 deles, majoritariamente por acusações de abuso de autoridade.
Mesmo com esse número expressivo de solicitações, a abertura de um processo depende de aprovação pela Casa Alta. Antes, seriam suficientes 41 votos de senadores (maioria absoluta) para instaurar um processo de impeachment, mas uma alteração regimental promovida pelo ministro Gilmar Mendes elevou para 54 votos o mínimo necessário já na fase inicial de abertura.
Estratégias e cenários eleitorais
A estratégia dos partidos e grupos conservadores passa por eleger um número substancial de senadores alinhados à pauta anti-STF, além de buscar apoio de parlamentares de centro e centro-direita que possam compor uma maioria qualificada.
A eleição de 54 cadeiras no Senado em 2026 — duas por estado — representa uma enorme oportunidade de renovar mais da metade da Casa, um fenômeno que ocorre apenas a cada oito anos. Com essa renovação, a direita busca não apenas formar maioria, mas também eleger um presidente do Senado a partir de 1º de fevereiro de 2027 que possa pautar pedidos de impeachment estagnados no processo legislativo.
Ainda segundo a análise do movimento conservador, a soma de senadores favoráveis ao impeachment hoje demonstra que já haveria maioria absoluta para abrir processos em tese. Porém, sem um bloco consolidado para alcançar os três quintos necessários em todas as etapas e sem a liderança institucional certa na Casa, esse apoio ainda não foi traduzido em abertura de procedimentos formais.
O que está em jogo
Para os articuladores dessa estratégia, conquistar uma maioria coesa no Senado significaria, além de potencialmente viabilizar impeachment de ministros do STF, redefinir o equilíbrio de poderes no Brasil. Parlamentares e líderes conservadores afirmam que isso seria uma forma de conter o que chamam de “ativismo judicial” e de assegurar que o Legislativo exerça com mais firmeza o seu papel nos freios e contrapesos do sistema republicano.
Analistas políticos, contudo, ressaltam que, além do esforço eleitoral, será necessário construir um consenso mais amplo entre correntes diversas para que qualquer iniciativa avance nos próximos anos, dada a complexidade do processo e as mudanças regimentais em vigor.
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