Pesquisa Paraná Pesquisas: Lula lidera no 1º turno e empata com Flávio Bolsonaro no 2º turno em 2026
Levantamento divulgado nesta quinta-feira aponta vantagem de Lula na primeira etapa da corrida presidencial, com empate técnico contra adversários da direita no embate decisivo.
O presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) lidera as intenções de voto na corrida presidencial de 2026, de acordo com levantamento divulgado nesta quinta-feira pelo instituto Paraná Pesquisas e repercutido pela Jovem Pan. No cenário em que o senador Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) figura como candidato, Lula soma 39,8% das intenções de voto no primeiro turno, contra 33,1% do parlamentar e 6,5% de Ratinho Jr. (PSD), segundo os dados mais recentes.
Empate técnico no segundo turno
O levantamento também mostra um empate técnico em cenários de segundo turno envolvendo Lula e principais adversários de direita. Em um confronto direto com Flávio Bolsonaro, o petista registra 44,8%, enquanto o senador aparece com 42,2% — marginados dentro do intervalo de erro da pesquisa. Em um cenário com Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), Lula teria 43,9% frente a 42,5% do governador paulista. Já no confronto com Ratinho Jr., Lula aparece à frente por 44,7% a 38,9%.
Metodologia e confiança
A pesquisa foi realizada entre os dias 25 e 28 de janeiro de 2026, com 2.080 eleitores em 160 municípios de todos os estados e no Distrito Federal. O levantamento tem nível de confiança de 95% e margem de erro de 2,2 pontos percentuais, e está registrado no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral sob o número BR-08254/2026.
O fato de Lula surgir à frente nos cenários de primeira etapa reflete uma continuidade de vantagem para o presidente no início da corrida eleitoral, enquanto o empate técnico no segundo turno indica um cenário competitivo entre os principais blocos políticos, com ajustes nas intenções de voto entre eleitores diante da escolha definitiva.
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